China's New Energy Vehicles Set to Outpace Gasoline Cars in Sales

As the new year begins, automobile companies such as Geely, Dongfeng, Changan, NIO, and XPeng have unveiled their sales targets and strategic directions for the year through internal communications and press conferences. These initiatives not only aim to "recharge" themselves but also reflect the new trends of "Chinese confidence" and industry transformation.

By 2025, China's overall automobile market is expected to grow steadily, reaching around 32 million units, maintaining a growth rate of 3%. New energy vehicles (NEVs), including exports, are projected to reach 16.5 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 30% and a penetration rate exceeding 50%. Domestically, NEV sales are anticipated to be 15 million units, with a penetration rate surpassing 55%, marking a development phase of relatively high quality. This indicates a historic turning point for China's automobile market this year, where NEV sales will surpass traditional gasoline cars for the first time.

Geely's Ambitious Sales Targets Reflect "Chinese Confidence"

On January 5th, Geely Automobile announced its 2025 sales target of 2.71 million vehicles, a 25% increase compared to the previous year. Among these, the Geely brand aims for sales of 2 million units, a 20% increase. Meanwhile, Zeekr and Lynk & Co aim for 320,000 and 390,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 44% and 37%. In terms of new energy vehicles, Geely's 2025 target is 1.5 million units, a 69% increase, with a penetration rate expected to exceed 55%.

Geely's CEO, Gan Jiayue, highlighted that in 2024, Geely's sales reached 2.177 million units, an over 32% year-on-year increase, marking a historic high for the brand and the first time Geely exceeded 2 million units. The NEV segment performed particularly well, with sales of 888,000 units, a near 92% year-on-year increase, exceeding targets.

To achieve these ambitious goals, Geely plans to further define the roles of its four major brands: Geely, Geely Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr, offering users a comprehensive and diverse range of technologies and products. Specifically, Geely Galaxy will introduce five new NEV products by 2025, including two SUVs and three sedans, to support its goal of 1 million annual sales.

Dongfeng and Changan's Strategic Developments

Meanwhile, Dongfeng Motor Group has set a target for 2025 to regain the 3 million units milestone, challenging 3.2 million units overall. Their NEV sales goal is over 1 million units with 500,000 units exported. To support this, Dongfeng has initiated strategic adjustments, transitioning headquarters functions from strategic control to "operations + coordination."

Dongfeng’s premium NEV brand, Voyah, aims to launch more than four new or redesigned models in 2025, striving towards a sales target of 200,000 units. Shao Mingfeng, Voyah's Deputy General Manager, mentions that the brand will accelerate innovations across branding, products, technology, distribution channels, services, and international markets.

Changan Automobile reported strategic objectives at their global partner conference focusing on 2025 targets. These include a total sales volume of 3 million units, revenues of 300 billion yuan, 1 million NEVs, and 1 million units overseas.

Innovations from NIO and XPeng

In the realm of emerging electric vehicle makers, NIO's founder Li Bin shared ambitious plans. NIO aims for an average monthly sale of 20,000 vehicles through its sub-brand and continued growth from 2024 levels. By 2025, with anticipated product cycle upgrades and brand expansions, NIO seeks 100% sales growth into the new product phase.

Presently, NIO's 2024 sales exceeded 220,000 units, with December deliveries surpassing 31,000 units for the first time, indicating a significant market breakthrough. As Li Bin explains, "Starting from 2025, NIO will enter a new phase with fresh product deliveries from our brands, leading to accelerated growth."

XPeng Motors, although silent on specific 2025 sales targets in internal memos, highlighted progress in 2024 across product technology, marketing, and organizational management. The focus is on a strategic trajectory of "doing fewer, doing refined, doing differentiated, and doing global" to secure a competitive position.