After Securing Global Leadership in Automobile Exports, China's Growth May Slow in 2025

On January 31, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association reported that Japan's automobile exports in 2024 amounted to 4.21 million units, a 5% decrease from the previous year. The decline in exports to North America by 7% was a significant factor dragging down Japan's overall export performance. In contrast, according to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile exports in 2024 maintained a robust growth of 19.3%, reaching 5.859 million units. This has allowed China to further widen its lead over Japan in automobile exports by a margin of 1.5 million units.

China's automobile export industry has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past four years, evolving from a stable figure of around 1 million units to nearly 6 million units. From 2021 to 2024, export figures were 2.01 million, 3.11 million, 4.91 million, and 5.859 million units respectively, reflecting explosive growth rates of 104.6%, 54.4%, 57.9%, and 19.3%. During this period, the average export price of cars steadily increased from $16,000 to $18,000 and $19,000.

However, the golden era of China's rapid automobile export growth may soon reach a turning point. According to Cui Dongshu, the Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, the overall growth rate of China's automobile exports is expected to drop to 10% in 2025, with the growth of new energy car exports potentially coming to a halt. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that exports will reach 6.2 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%.

The challenges affecting automobile exports, particularly electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, include political trade barriers worldwide, a slowly saturating global market, and the substantially increased export base. These pressures were notably apparent in the latter half of 2024.

Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that China's new energy car exports in 2024 totaled 1.284 million units, with a modest growth of 6.7% that lagged behind the overall export growth rate. Exports of pure electric vehicles, or EVs, decreased by 10.7%, totaling 987,000 units.

Information from broader statistics provided by the National Passenger Car Market Information Association indicates that the export of new energy cars reached 2.01 million units in 2024, growing by 12%. The export of purely electric cars, or EVs, amounted to 1.7 million units, showing a 6% increase— a significant slowdown from the 89% and 63% growth rates in 2022 and 2023, respectively, with no signs of a trend reversal.

The challenges in exporting to specific regions, particularly Europe and other developed markets, are particularly stark. In 2024, China's exports to the EU were 980,000 units, a meager growth of 4%, while exports of pure electric vehicles to the EU amounted to 570,000 units, accounting for nearly half of China’s total EV exports, yet saw a 10% decline—the most significant reason for the global slowdown in EV export growth.

This shift in the European market has also led to changes in the ranking of Chinese auto export companies. In 2024, Chery surpassed SAIC to become the leading exporter, with an export volume of 1.144 million units, and a growth of 21.4%. SAIC, however, saw exports drop by 15.5% to 929,000 units, with its flagship overseas brand, MG, selling only 240,000 units in Europe—a mere 5% increase, even as its largest overseas market, the UK, did not follow the EU in setting trade barriers.

In other developed economies, China’s electric car exports to North America fell by 29%, and to Oceania by 33%, with only a 47% increase in exports to Japan and Korea. However, the total pure electric vehicle exports to North America, Oceania, and Japan & Korea were less than 20,000 units, incomparable to the European market.

Following the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EV exports, temporary tariffs and long-term duties reaching up to 35.3% were imposed. France removed subsidy eligibility for Chinese EVs at the end of 2023, and Italy and other countries are planning to follow suit. On January 27, Tesla and BMW filed lawsuits with the European Court demanding the withdrawal of these tariff measures. Earlier, companies like BYD, Geely, and SAIC had initiated similar legal actions, but they remain unresolved.

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