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Views: 0 Author: Li Publish Time: 2025-10-31 Origin: Site
The "Golden September" of 2025 for the new energy logistics sector sent a powerful signal: sales of new energy vans hit 38,417 units in that month alone, surging 49.9% year-over-year and rising 26.5% compared to the previous month. Over the first nine months, cumulative sales surpassed 241,600 units—a 26.2% increase—accounting for 54.5% of all new energy logistics vehicle sales. These figures not only highlight the foundational role of vans in urban distribution but also set the stage for explosive growth in 2026. As demand for efficient urban transport grows, the electric vehicle segment is poised to redefine the automobile industry.
Statistics from industry analysts reveal that "top-heavy concentration and limited breakthroughs for newcomers" have defined the van market over the past five years. In the micro-van segment, players like Ruichi Auto, Xinyuan Auto, Changan Kaicheng, and SAIC-GM-Wuling consistently dominate, with market share consolidation accelerating post-2023. The 2025 top-ten list nearly mirrors 2024, and while emerging brands like Chengshi and Shandong Haochi made occasional appearances, they struggled to secure a lasting foothold. The medium-van segment, led by Yuanjing New Energy Commercial Vehicle, Changan Kaicheng, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Dongfeng Light Truck, has formed a stable first tier. A notable 2024 innovation—"windowed" models—boosted medium-van sales by catering to diverse use cases, from cargo to passenger transport. Meanwhile, large vans are dominated by Beiqi Foton, Yuanjing New Energy Commercial Vehicle, Ruichi Auto, and SAIC Maxus, with traditional commercial automobile giants leveraging supply chain and distribution advantages to solidify their positions. In my view, this consolidation reflects the industry’s maturity: established players benefit from extensive networks and loyal customer bases, creating high barriers for entrants. As the electric vehicle market evolves, this trend underscores the importance of scalability and reliability in the new energy car segment.
Industry projections suggest that new energy van sales could exceed 380,000 units in 2026. The robust performance in September 2025 (38,417 units) and the cumulative January-September tally of 241,600 units—achieved atop an already high base—signal a mature growth phase. Based on current data, 2025 full-year van sales are estimated at around 337,000 units. Here’s the reasoning: Q4 2024 sales totaled approximately 74,600 units. Assuming Q4 2025 growth mirrors the 26.2% year-to-date increase, Q4 2025 would deliver ~94,100 units, resulting in a 2025 total of ~335,700 units. An alternate method—using the van segment’s 54.5% share of total new energy logistics vehicle sales (projected at 620,000 units for 2025)—yields ~337,900 units. Averaging these, we arrive at 337,000 units and a 26.7% growth rate.
Historical context matters: van sales grew 140.48% in 2021 (boom phase), 82.18% in 2022 (sustained expansion), -2.72% in 2023 (adjustment), and 48.60% in 2024 (rebound). The segment’s share of the broader new energy logistics market has dipped—from 75.0% in 2020 to an estimated 54.35% in 2025—but the decline is slowing (4.06% in 2024-2025 vs. 6.39% in 2023-2024). For 2026, the share will likely stabilize at 50–52%. With total new energy logistics vehicle sales forecast at 770,000–800,000 units, van sales would range between 385,000 and 416,000 units. However, considering fierce competition from light- and small-truck categories (which are growing faster than all but the large-van sub-segment), I’d narrow the 2026 forecast to 380,000–400,000 units. Urbanization and platforms like Huolala will further drive demand by expanding delivery ranges and simplifying driver onboarding. This battery car revolution isn’t slowing down—it’s adapting.