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In 2024, the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) industry set multiple records, and the momentum towards electrification in the automobile sector is expected to continue into 2025. Recent interviews conducted by Shanghai Securities News revealed that, following the release of favorable policies at the beginning of the year, industry associations, research institutions, and major car manufacturers are optimistic about achieving higher sales volumes and penetration rates for new energy cars in 2025. At the same time, the export of China's electric vehicles and production capacity shows no signs of slowing down, with anticipated continued growth in overseas markets.
Recently, a stream of positive news regarding electric vehicles has emerged from both central and local governments in China. The Ministry of Finance has issued a directive stating that public procurement for vehicles should consist of at least 30% new energy cars, with a 100% target for public vehicles on fixed routes primarily operating in urban areas.
On January 3rd, the National Development and Reform Commission reported that over 60% of consumers opted for electric cars during trade-in programs, contributing to a market penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles that has exceeded 50% for six consecutive months. Looking ahead to 2025, initiatives to control energy consumption will be crucial, with improvements in financial, tax, and investment policies to support these goals.
The Shanghai Municipal Government has recently revised regulations regarding the auction management of non-commercial passenger car quotas, allowing those who have paid social security or personal taxes for a year to participate. This new regulation is a significant move to relax car purchasing policies, which is expected to favor electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
Industry experts assert that, despite some global skepticism regarding carbon emissions and new energy development, China remains resolute in promoting electric vehicles. This dedication is poised to enhance the industry’s economic health and boost the performance of key companies within the sector.
According to the latest predictions from the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum, sales of new energy vehicles in China could reach around 16.5 million units (including exports) by 2025, nearly a 30% growth rate, while market penetration is expected to exceed 50%, with domestic demand hitting about 15 million vehicles, pushing penetration rates beyond 55%.
"The new energy vehicle industry has experienced rapid expansion over the past 3-4 years, now holding a penetration rate equal to that of traditional fuel vehicles," explained Zhang Yongwei, the vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People Forum. "However, all industries will stabilize and progress into a more mature phase over time."
Zhang noted that passenger electric vehicles have entered a phase of normalized growth while commercial vehicles are experiencing rapid advancement. In certain sectors, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of new energy commercial vehicles is more advantageous compared to traditional fuel vehicles, which will accelerate the penetration of these new energy models.
The Electric Vehicle Hundred Forum predicts that by 2025, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles could approach 1 million units, marking a spectacular growth rate of 80%. Notably, the penetration of new energy heavy trucks is expected to surge, with conservative estimates suggesting sales could exceed 110,000 units and penetration surpassing 20%. Additionally, the urban logistics delivery market is poised for rapid development.
The High-Tech Industry Research Institute has also expressed an optimistic outlook for the sector: policies such as trade-in incentives, tax breaks, and vehicle purchase subsidies are likely to continue, further stimulating market demands. Coupled with the central economic work conference’s calls to support new energy vehicles in rural areas, it’s projected that sales of new energy vehicles in China may hit 16.1 million units, with electrification penetration expected to exceed 50%.