Views: 0 Author: Li Publish Time: 2025-01-24 Origin: Site
In 2024, the electric car industry in China is set to break several records, and by 2025, the momentum for new energy automobiles will continue to surge. Recent interviews conducted by Shanghai Securities Journal have revealed that, with the release of advantageous policies at the beginning of the year, leaders from industry associations, research institutions, and major automobile manufacturers are optimistic about the sales and penetration rates of electric vehicles (EVs) in China. The momentum is particularly evident as Chinese electric car products and manufacturing capabilities expand into overseas markets, indicating a promising outlook for sustained growth in the new year.
Policy Support Boosts EV Sales Expectations
Recently, supportive news regarding electric vehicles has emerged from both central and local governments in China. The Ministry of Finance has mandated that, for annual government vehicle purchases, electric cars should constitute at least 30% of the total if they meet practical usage needs. Furthermore, for government cars that primarily operate within urban areas, 100% of purchases should ideally be electric vehicles.
On January 3rd, the National Development and Reform Commission indicated that over 60% of consumers opted for electric vehicles during trade-in programs, resulting in a market penetration rate for new energy passenger cars exceeding 50% for six consecutive months. Looking ahead to 2025, efforts are underway to establish a comprehensive evaluation framework and continue enhancing policies surrounding taxation, finance, investment, pricing, and industry standards.
In Shanghai, the updated regulations for non-commercial vehicle plate auctions are seen as a significant loosening of purchasing policies, facilitating easier access to electric vehicles for consumers. Industry experts agree that, despite international discord surrounding carbon emissions and new energy, China's determination to develop electric vehicles remains resolute. This commitment will likely enhance the industry's vibrancy and improve the performance of key enterprises.
As predicted by the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, optimistic estimates indicate that by 2025, electric car sales in China may reach around 16.5 million units (including exports), representing a growth rate near 30% and a penetration exceeding 50%. With domestic demand projected to reach 15 million units and an expected penetration rate of over 55%, the market for new energy cars is gaining significant traction.
Stability Amidst Growth
The electric vehicle market in China has achieved a remarkable balance with traditional fuel cars, claiming equal market share. However, industry growth may stabilize as it enters a more mature phase. Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, notes that while the passenger vehicle electric transition has become a norm, commercial vehicles are rapidly gaining traction. The total cost of ownership (TCO) for new energy commercial vehicles in certain applications can be more competitive than that of fuel vehicles, accelerating the adoption of electric solutions.
Predictions suggest that by 2025, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles could approach 1 million units, with a remarkable growth rate of 80%. Notably, the penetration rate for electric heavy-duty trucks is expected to exceed 20%, especially in urban logistics and distribution sectors, which will demonstrate robust development.
Research from Gao Gong Industry shows positive expectations: policies supporting trade-in incentives, tax reductions, and purchase subsidies are likely to continue, stimulating ongoing demand in the vehicle market. The anticipated electric vehicle sales in China may reach approximately 16.1 million units by 2025, with an electrification penetration rate expected to surpass 50%.
Mainstream Makers Raise Sales Targets
As the industry grows, leading automobile manufacturers are increasing their sales targets for electric vehicles. For instance, on January 2nd, Sailus Group's Chairman Zhang Xinghai set ambitious goals for 2025, focusing on establishing luxury electric vehicles while planning for market expansion overseas. The partnership with Huawei has also yielded spectacular results, with Sailus recording an increase of 182.84% year-on-year in cumulative electric vehicle sales by 2024.
Similarly, Geely announced a target of 2.71 million units for 2025, which includes sales in new energy vehicles projected to reach 1.5 million units, reflecting a robust growth rate. Xiaomi Group's Chairman Lei Jun has also established a goal of delivering 300,000 cars by 2025, while NIO Chairman Li Bin aims for a doubling of their sales to reach 440,000 units.