Forecasting a 30% Growth in Electric Vehicle Market by 2025: A New Equilibrium for Plug-In Hybrids and Pure Electrics

Expanding the Electric Vehicle Market

China's domestic and export markets are expected to deliver around 16.5 million NEVs, achieving a growth rate of approximately 30%. Domestically, the penetration of these vehicles is predicted to surpass 55%, indicating entry into a relatively high-quality development phase. Additionally, Europe remains a crucial export destination for Chinese electric vehicles, but the declining economic growth in Europe, compounded by issues such as electricity cost and supply, and the reduction or withdrawal of subsidies in countries like Germany and France, has resulted in a slowdown in electric car sales.

Advancements in Automobile Intelligent Technologies

By 2025, the acceleration of automobile intelligence in China will be evident. Marking the beginning of foundational intelligent technology, 2025 is poised as the year when such technologies will comprehensively infiltrate the market. Most new models launched in 2025 and 2026 will feature certain levels of intelligent technology, with the penetration of Level 2 and above driving assistance systems in passenger vehicles possibly reaching 65%, up from 55.7% in 2024.

Furthermore, advanced intelligent technologies are likely to rapidly enter the mid to low-price markets, making high-level intelligence accessible for cars priced between 100,000 to 200,000 RMB. This accessibility is a key factor boosting consumer interest in smart electric vehicles, extending their appeal beyond the luxury sectors.

Shift in the Growth Paradigm

Over the past two years, the primary growth driver in China’s NEV market has shifted from purely electric vehicles to plug-in hybrids and range-extended EVs. Data from notable industry bodies indicate that from January to November 2024, sales of plug-in hybrids and range-extended cars reached 4.519 million units, a significant year-over-year increase of 85.2%, capturing 40.1% of the NEV market share.

The Rise of Electric Sedans and Pickups

Within this promising growth, electric sedans and pickups are gaining strong traction. The development and marketing of versatile electric sedans cater to the urban market's demand for efficiency and sophistication. Meanwhile, electric pickups are increasingly appealing to consumers seeking sustainability and utility in one package, underscoring the adaptability and wide-ranging appeal of electric vehicle applications.

Economic and Environmental Impacts

The environmental benefits accompanying this robust growth cannot be overstated. As battery technology advances and production costs decrease, electric vehicles stand out as a more environmentally friendly and economical choice over traditional gasoline cars. This shift not only supports global emissions reduction goals but also aligns with consumer preferences for sustainable living through enhanced fuel efficiency and lower operational costs of electric cars.

China's Strategic Export Efforts

China is positioning itself strategically in the global market by balancing exports with domestic demand. Despite challenges in Europe, efforts to introduce intelligent vehicles in emerging markets present China with vast opportunities to proliferate its influence and earn a reputation as a leader in innovative automobile technology.