Examining the Paradigm Shift of New Energy Cars in 2025 Across Four Dimensions

Several new energy car manufacturers have announced their November sales figures, with many setting new records for deliveries. For instance, BYD reported a sale of 506,800 vehicles, marking an impressive 67.87% year-on-year growth. Leapmotor delivered 40,169 vehicles, up 117%, crossing the 40,000 monthly sales mark for the first time. XPeng, too, reached a milestone by delivering 30,895 cars, growing 54% compared to the previous year. This trend has contributed to the continued high-speed growth of China's electric vehicle (EV) market in the fourth quarter.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, recently projected that domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles in Q4 2024 are expected to hit 3.55 million units, a 39% increase year-on-year. Since Tesla’s entry into China in 2014, the Chinese electric car industry has accelerated its growth for a decade. During this period, China has emerged as the largest market for electric vehicles globally, with new energy car sales comprising over 60% of the worldwide market.

China has produced leading players like CATL, which holds a 37% global market share in power batteries, and BYD, which sold 2.4666 million battery cars from January to September, commanding a 34.6% market share in China. BYD also ranks as the world's top-selling new energy car maker. Most notable automobile brands from U.S. stocks to Hong Kong stocks are tapping into this boom, entering the capital market with vigor.

Despite these successes, these achievements are just one facet of China's electric vehicle story. Over the last decade, the industry transitioned from policy-driven to price and technology-driven growth, unveiling the need for a sustainable “healthy zone” for many firms. Many players have yet to achieve self-sustaining growth, and even established car dealers must remain vigilant, as a failed launch or misguided marketing strategy could spell disaster.

In today’s competitive automobile market, companies cannot afford any weaknesses; each disadvantage can be magnified, and strengths swiftly overtaken.

As we stand at the threshold of 2025, the phase for entering EV production may well have closed. Xiaomi’s Lei Jun acknowledged that some once thought they missed their market entry window when they started making electric vehicles. Over the past two years, fewer new players have entered the EV arena, suggesting an accelerated competition phase—leading to a potential elimination round.

At NIO's recent ten-year celebration, founder William Li highlighted that industry competition will intensify over the next two to three years, with only a few exceptional brands expected to survive. XPeng Chairman He Xiaopeng and Xiaomi's Lei Jun have similarly predicted that, by 2025, the competitive field in the new energy car sector might consolidate down to a maximum of five remaining brands. As 2025 approaches, no company can take its survival for granted. Each must stay attuned to market trends and maintain a cautious approach to decision-making.